Abstract
Climate change has led to more frequent occurrences of extreme weather conditions and irregular rainfall patterns, making accurate prediction of rainfall amounts essential. In this paper, the performance of a Hybrid Temporal-Spatial Attention Network (HTSAN) model in predicting rainfall for the next day is evaluated using 12 meteorological predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The geographical area covered by this research spans a 17 × 17 grid with 0.25° × 0.25° nominal resolution around Bangalore. HTSAN’s architecture involved a convolutional feature extractor, recurrent temporal representation, a transformer encoder, and a regression layer. HTSAN's performance was benchmarked against recurrent, convolutional-recurrent, and attention-based approaches using chronological test data. In this, benchmarking, the TFT approach resulted in the best RMSE value of 7.1474, while HTSAN had an RMSE of 7.5911, an MAE of 3.6779, and an R² of 0.4259. Extreme-rainfall benchmarking also revealed that HTSAN’s critical success index values were lower than those of the comparison approaches at the selected grid-cell rainfall thresholds. Thus, it can be inferred that the current version of HTSAN did not perform better than the selected benchmarks.References
- Abbot, John, and Jennifer Marohasy. “Skilful Rainfall Forecasts from Artificial Neural Networks with Long Duration Series and Single-Month Optimization.” Atmospheric Research 197 (2017): 289-299.
- Pham, Binh Thai, Lu Minh Le, Tien-Thinh Le, Kien-Trinh Thi Bui, Vuong Minh Le, Hai-Bang Ly, and Indra Prakash. “Development of Advanced Artificial Intelligence Models for Daily Rainfall Prediction.” Atmospheric Research 237 (2020): 104845.
- Zhou, Zhengzheng, Jie Ren, Xiaogang He, and Shuguang Liu. “A Comparative Study of Extensive Machine Learning Models for Predicting Long‐Term Monthly Rainfall with an Ensemble of Climatic and Meteorological Predictors.” Hydrological processes 35, no. 11 (2021): e14424.
- Kang, Jinle, Huimin Wang, Feifei Yuan, Zhiqiang Wang, Jing Huang, and Tian Qiu. “Prediction of Precipitation Based on Recurrent Neural Networks in Jingdezhen, Jiangxi Province, China.” Atmosphere 11, no. 3 (2020): 246.
- Barrera-Animas, Ari Yair, Lukumon O. Oyedele, Muhammad Bilal, Taofeek Dolapo Akinosho, Juan Manuel Davila Delgado, and Lukman Adewale Akanbi. “Rainfall Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of Modern Machine Learning Algorithms for Time-Series Forecasting.” Machine Learning with Applications 7 (2022): 100204.
- Rahman, Atta-ur, Sagheer Abbas, Mohammed Gollapalli, Rashad Ahmed, Shabib Aftab, Munir Ahmad, Muhammad Adnan Khan, and Amir Mosavi. “Rainfall Prediction System Using Machine Learning Fusion for Smart Cities.” Sensors 22, no. 9 (2022): 3504.
- Wei, Ming, and Xue-yi You. “Monthly Rainfall Forecasting by a Hybrid Neural Network of Discrete Wavelet Transformation and Deep Learning.” Water Resources Management 36, no. 11 (2022): 4003-4018.
- Ahamed, S., and M. Asif. ”Flood Risk Assessment in Bangalore: Challenges and Solutions.” International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts (IJCRT) 6, no. 3 (2018): 515-531.
- Mahadeva, M., C. C. Abhijth, V. E. Harshith, N. R. Leela, and N. S. Naik. “A Review on Urban Flooding in Bangalore: A Growing Environmental Crisis.” J. Environ. Eng. Stud 10 (2025): 11-19.
- Kumar, Vijendra, Naresh Kedam, Kul Vaibhav Sharma, Khaled Mohamed Khedher, and Ayed Eid Alluqmani. “A Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Predicting Rainfall in Urban Metropolitan Cities.” Sustainability 15, no. 18 (2023): 13724.
- Farman, H., Mastoi, Q., Abbas, Q., Ahmad, S., Alshahrani, A., Jan, S., & Syed, T. A. “A Comparative Study of Deep Learning and Modern Machine Learning Methods for Predicting Australia’s Precipitation”. International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, (2025). 16(4).
- Kumar, Vijendra, Naresh Kedam, Ozgur Kisi, Saleh Alsulamy, Khaled Mohamed Khedher, and Mohamed Abdelaziz Salem. “A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Models for Daily and Weekly Rainfall Forecasting: Vijendra Kumar.” Water Resources Management 39, no. 1 (2025): 271-290.
- Hersbach, Hans, Bill Bell, Paul Berrisford, Gionata Biavati, András Horányi, Joaquín Muñoz Sabater, Julien Nicolas et al. “ERA5 Hourly Data on Single Levels from 1940 to Present.” Copernicus climate change service (c3s) climate data store (cds) 10, no. 1.24381 (2023): 24381.
- Livieris, Ioannis E., Emmanuel Pintelas, and Panagiotis Pintelas. “A CNN–LSTM Model for Gold Price Time-Series Forecasting.” Neural computing and applications 32, no. 23 (2020): 17351-17360.
- Liu, Wan, Yongqiang Wang, Deyu Zhong, Shuai Xie, and Jijun Xu. “ConvLSTM Network-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Method with Combined Reflectance and Radar-Retrieved Wind Field as Inputs.” Atmosphere 13, no. 3 (2022): 411.
- Muhtasim Ahmed Tanvir, Nazratun Naiema. “Rainfall Prediction Using Machine Learning: LSTM.” Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology (2025): 23-33.
- Yang, Yueqiao, Shichuang Li, Ting Zhou, Liang Zhao, Xiao Shi, and Boni Du. “Rainfall Forecasting Using a BiLSTM Model Optimized by an Improved Whale Migration Algorithm and Variational Mode Decomposition” Mathematics 13, no. 15: 2025. 2483.
- Wijaya, Surta, Tri Basuki Kurniawan, Edi Surya Negara, and Yesi Novaria Kunang. “Rainfall Prediction in Palembang City using the GRU and LSTM Methods.” Journal of Data Science 2023.
- Upadhyay, Abhay B., Saurin R. Shah, and Rajesh A. Thakker. “Advanced Rainfall Nowcasting Using 3D Convolutional LSTM Networks on Satellite Data.” Journal of Computational Mathematics and Data Science (2025): 100125.
- Piran, Md Jalil, Xiaoding Wang, Ho Jun Kim, and Hyun Han Kwon. “Precipitation Nowcasting Using Transformer-Based Generative Models and Transfer Learning for Improved Disaster Preparedness.” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 132 (2024): 103962.
- Jun, Jimin, and Hong Kook Kim. “Informer-based Temperature Prediction Using Observed and Numerical Weather Prediction Data.” Sensors 23, no. 16 (2023): 7047.
- Subramanian, Dhanalakshmi, Poongothai Marimuthu, and Nithyalakshmi Ramadoss. 2026. “A Multifaceted Framework for Predicting Ambient Air Pollution in the National Capital Region”. Journal of Trends in Computer Science and Smart Technology 8 (3): 558-78. https://doi.org/10.36548/jtcsst.2026.3.007.
- Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store. “Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3 S)(2017): ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate.” (2017). https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu

Journal of Innovative Image Processing